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Only two days before the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a significant forecast – going beyond the winner citywide, but block by block. Lange, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, the Narrative War. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He pointed out, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the early vote by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes added after that and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible where election day went somewhat badly for him, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the primary. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and residents struggling with costs

There were also a number of Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously backed Zohran this year. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – that is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but there’s still around 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support plummeted.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That truly surprised me. Cuomo held Caucasian districts, affluent zones and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. Thus there was a little resistance. But no, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

Prior to the vote there was coverage on whether Mamdani was making inroads with the community. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like specific locales – where he did well. But in the affluent districts such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Similarly in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but he did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York represents in politics? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see additional examples – people will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of progressive influence in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.