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Over the last few NFL years, a pattern has emerged. Around the eighth week of the season, the Most Valuable Player race often turns into a predictable script, highlighting names like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

From 2015 and 2019, the NFL saw four debut MVP recipients – Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Mahomes, and Jackson. However in the last five years, only Allen has entered that list as a new winner.

Allen is the frontrunner to win back-to-back this year, which would mark the fifth time in six years a previous winner has taken the award. But voter fatigue is real; everyone craves a fresh star. This year’s pool of first-time contenders feels remarkably strong and entertaining. Maybe they might not win this year, but let’s look at the athletes who could challenge the Mahomes-Allen-Jackson triopoly in the next few seasons.

A couple points: the scores below reflect each player’s odds of winning the award in the next few years, not specifically this season. We’ve also excluded regular candidates like Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott to focus on some longer shots.

Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

No longer a laughing matter: Darnold is currently one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. During his time in Minnesota, it was tempting to underestimate his ascent. Observers could point to the scheme and his strong teammates. That’s no longer the situation in Seattle.

The Seahawks’ running game has not yet click. The O-line is better but still trails behind the NFL’s elite. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been among the top five receivers this season, but he’s been elevated by Darnold’s choices and accuracy.

Seattle has retooled their offense around Darnold, who is still 28 years old. They aim for big plays, banking on Darnold’s ability to push the ball deep. In that role, he resembles Stafford than the version we saw during his Jets tenure. Earlier in his career, Darnold had trouble under pressure, frequently forcing expensive turnovers. He’s mostly removed those mistakes from his game. Where once he seemed to see ghosts, now he creates plays when protection fails or the play structure collapses.

Look through any quarterback metric you prefer, and Darnold is among the best. He leads the league in the RBSDM composite, which measures the value of every offensive play and assigns responsibility to the quarterback. The QB who ends up on top in that stat typically finishes in the final three for MVP voting.

Through five weeks, Darnold has shown that last year’s performance in Minnesota was no fluke. This is currently who he is, and it’s been an upgrade for Seattle over Geno Smith. If he can guide the Seahawks to a division crown, the redemption narrative could propel him into the discussion with Allen and Mahomes.

Most Valuable Player Probability: 7/10. This year may be his best chance to win it.

Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Talking of turnaround stories. There was a period when the Panthers had Mayfield and Darnold. Oof. Mayfield has transformed from a scout team pass-rusher in Carolina to a starting quarterback in Tampa Bay.

The MVP is, partly, a story-driven award, and few have a cooler journey than Mayfield. Burrow, Stafford, and Prescott are more skilled quarterbacks. But there is an element about his path that should earn additional credit from voters. Multiple franchises moved on on him before he arrived in Tampa. He’s had three different offensive coordinators in the last three seasons, yet has kept to run the Bucs offense at a high level.

Mayfield hasn’t been as sharp this year as he was in 2024. Play to play, he’s been a little inconsistent. But he’s working in a difficult environment: Tampa’s ground game has stalled, and the offensive line has been weakened by injuries. Yet despite those issues, Mayfield is playing the best football of his career. He’s already led the Bucs to four comeback drives this year and leads the league in Big Time Throw Rate. He is doing more with limited resources, including waltzing into Seattle with a beat-up line and dropping 38 points on one of the top defenses in the league.

In an era before modern analytics, Mayfield would be ahead this year’s MVP conversation. He has put his team on his back to a greater extent than any other quarterback in critical time. Voters still value that quality, but not exactly to the same degree they did in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Most Valuable Player Likelihood: 4/10. His risk-taking style will lead him to lose a few games.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Daniels came back from injury against the Chargers on Sunday and showed everyone why, last season, he was the standout rookie to join the league in a long time. Daniels tore apart the Chargers in the second half on the road, carrying the Commanders to a decisive win in LA.

It hasn’t been the easiest start to his second season. The Commanders’ roster-building strategy around Daniels has been unusual. They’ve tried to fast-track success, recognizing they have something unique with a quarterback on a low-cost rookie contract. But they’re left with the oldest roster in the league by a significant margin. And it is evident, particularly on defense.

Over the medium term, Washington’s roster makeup could hurt Daniels. But he remains a single-handed supernova at the game’s most important position. He is the closest quarterback in the league to Jackson: a accurate passer who is also electric with the ball in his hands as a runner. If he can lead the Commanders past the Eagles at the summit of the NFC East in the coming few years, he will be a lock for the award.

MVP Probability: 8/10. The most certain player from his highly-touted rookie class to win in the next three years.

Justin Herbert, LA Chargers

It was all going very well for Herbert and the Chargers. Two weeks into the season, it felt like this was the year. Finally, the parts around him were set. And the Chargers had transitioned to a Herbert-centric offense, changing from a run-focused unit into a passing one. It was as if Jim Harbaugh set out with the aim of winning Herbert the MVP award as much as he was looking to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West.

That’s different now. The Chargers have lost too many players along their offensive line. They lost a winnable game against the Giants and were hammered along both sides of the line of scrimmage by the Commanders. The degree of difficulty for Herbert at this point, this season, is too high. Even to keep the chains moving, he has to put on his superhero cape. That’s fun in small samples – and helpful for the MVP award when it comes under a national spotlight – but unsustainable over the grind of a regular season.

Herbert has MVP talent. When the Chargers are healthy, he is the favorite for the award among the players on this list. He fits the description: the rule of new, the playmaking, the winning. He passes the eye test and has a dominance over some of the most advanced metrics. But it won’t be this year.

Most Valuable Player Likelihood: 9/10. Eventually, the Chargers will remain healthy, and Herbert will succeed.

Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars

The MVP is a quarterback award – the most recent non-QB to win it was Adrian Peterson in the 2012 season. Still, playing on both sides of the ball is a major help for anyone trying to challenge the quarterback dominance.

It’s been an inauspicious start for Hunter as a two-way star. The Jags have switched back and forth between primarily using him on offense and defense. Last week, they decided on a 40-snap rotation on either side of the ball. And that feels like the appropriate number for a rookie trying to adjust to the speed of the professional game while mastering a complicated offense and the league’s most tricky defense.

Hunter has been fine as a rookie, but he hasn’t been an immediate gamechanger. There have been flashes of the ability that made him the Heisman winner, but he has yet to take over a game while playing on both sides. At some point, the Jags may choose using him on one side while only bringing him on the field for select packages the other way. But that’s not the strategy at the moment.

That may make Hunter’s growth curve steeper, but it also increases his MVP potential. Who else could plausibly have double-digit touchdowns as a receiver while also recording five or more takeaways? If Hunter fulfills his Ohtani-like potential on both sides of the ball, voters will overlook the quarterbacks.

MVP Probability: 5/10. The only “defensive” player who has a sniff.

Maye, New England

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