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Attribute it to destiny, luck, or a oddity of probability, whatever your inclination. Should Australia's opening day in Adelaide was a jigsaw puzzle tossed into the air, most of the pieces came to rest the right way up and in the correct place. This has been a recurring pattern for the home side in this series: monstered by England's attack in Perth, only to engineer an more dramatic collapse; stumbling in Brisbane, rescued by the lower order.

Once again, the trend continued: be it dodgy catching or dodgy equipment, things keep falling into place for the Australians.

England, meanwhile, arrived with a gameplan founded on the belief that they couldn't win in Australia with medium-fast seamers and a keeper standing close, then lost to be defeated by medium-fast seamers with a wicketkeeper in close. England was given the advantage of a missing Pat Cummins, an absent Josh Hazlewood, no Nathan Lyon and yet proceeded to suffer two defeats in six days. Their next match brought the following boon: Steve Smith missing with an inner-ear problem, their very own Ghost of Ashes Past substituted in the batting lineup by a aging, struggling top-order batter whom Australia had previously attempted to drop.

In an act of courtesy, England had to drop him too. In the cordon, on five runs, when the score would have been 50 for three. A couple of hours before, Usman Khawaja's Test future had been all but finished, with selectors unveiling a shiny new toy called the aggressive opening batter. Soon after, Khawaja had been given two lives, initially by Smith's balance issues, then by Harry Brook's lack of balance at slip.

A Unshackled Knock from the Middle Order

The move down the order had only spared him nine overs at the top, but that meant he almost entirely dodged Jofra Archer's intense opening burst, a possibly decisive missed contest given Khawaja's recent struggles against high-speed bowling. Liberated, with nothing to lose, Khawaja produced his most assured and confident knock since his previous return through the middle order in 2022.

Josh Tongue was not much slower than Archer, but Khawaja picked off his errors while using Ben Stokes's bouncer to get his trademark hook going. He saw Will Jacks's weakness as a part-time bowler and attacked him accordingly. He compiled a half century after lunch, amid a vital partnership with Alex Carey after some Christmas giveaways.

While Steve Smith is Australia's best bat in career terms, Carey might be their most convincing one right this moment, after his another hundred this year.

A Chance That Slipped Away, but Influence Made

This is still a strong possibility of this being Khawaja's final match, with Smith to come back and the rest of the order unlikely to change, so a hundred that could have been both comeback and send-off would have been a remarkable tale. But straining against the constraints of age left it just out of reach. Steve Waugh in his final appearance was fighting the dying of the light, hoping for one final century, out instead slog-sweeping a spinner to deep midwicket. Khawaja, older still, was out slog-sweeping a spinner to deep midwicket for 82.

Nevertheless, it was pivotal for the side, and another example of how disruption hasn't bothered these Australians. Lose your best bat minutes before the match? The stand-in has it covered. A unorthodox batting order to follow? No problem either.

Carey's Hometown Triumph

The gloveman would traditionally bat at No 7, while the original idea at the outset was to establish Cameron Green at No 6. The spot opened up by Travis Head's promotion was at No 5. And yet, instead of using Josh Inglis there, Australia inserted Inglis at No 7 and moved Green and Carey a place.

Nothing feels conventional about positioning an active wicketkeeper ahead of an specialist batter who keeps wicket, but on this occasion it worked, maybe because Carey was unburdened in the initial batting effort. He secured the hundred that Khawaja missed, accumulating runs in his usual positive way, producing a massive Adelaide occasion as local supporters filled the ground.

In the end, he shepherded Australia's total from 85 when he arrived to 321 when he was out, and further runs are possible for the final two wickets on the next day. Smith wasn't there, five of the leading batters made scores of little substance, yet Australia are still on top, with far more runs than looked likely at several stages.

England's only path to alter this dynamic is a brute-force response: claim the remaining wickets, then occupy the crease for a long time in the scorching conditions. Any other approach relies on chance, or luck, or a quirk of probability. It's unwise to rely on any of them.