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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.